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Overview:
(Parts taken from Austin Syllabus; see below)
Emergence Theory: What comes from conflicted, chaotic and transitional states is something both new and unexpected.

The Right Reverend Mark Dyer, an Anglican bishop known for his wit as well as his wisdom, famously observes from time to time that the only way to understand what is currently happening to us as twenty-first-century Christians in North America is first to understand that about every five hundred years the Church feels compelled to hold a giant rummage sale. And, he goes on to say, we are living in and through one of those five-hundred-year sales.

The 3 results of a 500-year Church Rummage Sale

• A new more vital form of Christianity emerges.
• The organized expression of Christianity is reconstituted into a more pure, refurbished expression of itself.
• The faith spreads more widely, both geographically and demographically, than in its previous incarnation.

The 6 "Greats" in 3000 Years of History
Note: Tickle changed some of the labels in her 2016 seminar (see below). Those are noted with an *.

• Transition* - Transformation (1st century* 900 BCE - 200 BCE)
  Overall, the evolution of religion during this period was characterized by the emergence of new religious movements, the development of key theological concepts, and the interaction between different cultures and belief systems. These developments laid the foundations for many of the world's major religious traditions and philosophies.
  New Religions: Buddhism, 573, Islam 570.
  

  Judaism:
  1010 BCE David the king begins rule
  966 Solom's Temple
  930 BC Israel splits into 2 kingdoms< Judah in the South and Israel in the North>
  Emergence of various prophetic figures and the recording of their teachings in the Hebrew Bible (or Old Testament). e.g. Elijah 850, Isaiah 767, Micah 740, Jeremiah 640, Ezekiel, Daniel 592
  The centralization of worship in the Temple in Jerusalem and the development of monotheistic beliefs became increasingly important.
  

  In ancient Greece, philosophical thought, while not religious in the traditional sense, played a significant role in shaping religious ideas.
  Socrates (470–399 BC), Plato (c. 428–c. 348 BCE) and Aristotle (384–322 BCE)

• Birth (100 BCE - 500 CE)
  Christ crucified sometime around 30 CE.
  40's and 50's CE St. Paul's, Barnabas and Stephen's missionary journeys concentrated on Gentiles, while other apostles, e.g. Peter, James the Just and John, concentrated on converting Jews. They were all successful.
  Sometime prior to the Council of Nicaea in 325 CE , Emperor Constantine declares Christianity the official religan of the Roman Empire.
  By the 5th century CE the majority of Palestine was Christian.
  

• Great Decline/Fall* Gregory (540 CE - 950 CE)
  After the fall of the Western Roman Empire in 476, the Catholic faith competed with Arianism for the conversion of the barbarian tribes.
  The church was weakened and in serious danger of being split apart by the Nestorian heresy, in what was essentially an argument about the divinity of Christ.
  Pope Gregory I (Gregory the Great) came to the papacy sometime around 590 CE and presided over the closing decade of the tumultuous 6th century.
  Building on the work of St. Benedict, Gregory guided Christianity firmly into the monasticism that would protect, preserve, and characterize it during the next five centuries.

• Schism (900 - 1500 CE)
  East (Orthodox) - West (Catholicism) Schism
  In 1054 the Patriarch of the Greek or Eastern Orthodox Christianity Pope Leo IX declared the Patriarch of Constantinople, Michael Cerularius, to be excommunicated. Centuries later, this dramatic incident was thought to mark the beginning of the schism between the Latin and the Greek churches, a division that still separates Roman Catholics and Eastern Orthodox (Greek, Russian, and other).
  See 1054 The East-West Schism.

• Reformation (1500 - 2000 CE)
  Start pf Protestantism
  1517 Martin Luther nailed his 95 Theses to the door of the church in Wittenberg.

• Emergence (present) - 9/11/2001 (9-1-1)*
  Some points: Absolute truth vs relative truth, The concept and teaching of religion/spirituality morphs, rise in Pentecostalism, Young people to seek spiritual stimulation and answers elsewhere.
  Social Issues: Slavery, Critical race theory, divorce, women in the church, abortion, social networking, concept of nuclear family decline, homosexuality, transsexuality.
  I added some issues which have gained prominence since Tickle wrote her book in 2008.

  Gay Issue:
  

  • Starting in 1960's the Presbyterian Church USA, The largest Presbterian denomination, disagreements heated up in the 60's over involvement in the Civil Rights issues, in the 70's over ordination of women, in the 90's over the issues of ordination of gays and in the 21st century over same-sex marriages and many other social issues.
    > They voted to allow same-sex marriage in 2014.
    Membership declined from 4.25 million members in 1965 to 1.5 million in 2015. Many churched moved to more conservative denominations like the Evangelical Presbyterian Church (EPC).
  • Episcopal Church: In 2012, the Episcopal Church voted to allow same-sex marriage, leading to the formation of a new denomination, the Anglican Church in North America, by those who opposed the decision.
  • United Methodist Church: In 2020, the United Methodist Church voted to split over the issue of same-sex marriage, with traditionalist congregations forming a new denomination, the Global Methodist Church.
  • Southern Baptist Convention: In 2016, the Southern Baptist Convention voted to disfellowship any church that affirms same-sex marriage or ordains LGBTQ+ clergy. This decision led to a number of churches leaving the convention, including some of the largest and most prominent Southern Baptist churches in the country.
  A recent study by the Pew Research Center found that the percentage of Americans who identify as Christian has declined from 78% in 2007 to 65% in 2022

Source: Christian denominational families | Wikipedia

500 year cycle:
In her seminar, Tickle says that 500 year cycles are predicted by General Systems Theory. The gives an example of Judaism following a similar 500 year cycle.
I couldn't find any collaboration of that.
Sorry for the digression but I'm a former statistician interested in these things.
Peter Turchin's book Secular Cycles , is frequently quoted in this area
The introduction to Secular Cycles says "Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline."
Nowhere is a 500 year cycle mentioned in it or related documents.
In Turchin's article "Long-Term Population Cycles in Human Societies" he refers to population oscillations with an approximate periodicity of 200-300 years characterize a great variety of agrarian states. This is based on the time it takes for population growth to outstrip food supply.
An asside: "The Mayan civilization lasted 2,400 years"