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The 11 states with the largest population account for more than half of EC Votes.

StateECV2000
Margin
CA 55 -11.8%
TX 34 21.3
NY 31 -24.5
FL 27 0.01
IL 21 -12.0
PA 21 -4.2%
StateECV2000
Margin
OH 20 3.6
MI 17 -5.1
NJ 15 -15.8
NC 15 12.8
GA 15 11.8
ECV - Elctoral College votes

Battleground States

The following were considered battleground states in at least one of the last five elections.
Democrat Republican
State ECV Margin of victory
Clinton Bush Obama
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
National 5.6% 8.5% -0.5% 2.8% 6.5%
Ohio OH 20 1.83% 6.36% 3.5% 2.1% 4%
Nevada NV 5 2.63% 1.02% 3.5% 2.6% 12%
Florida FL 27 1.89% 5.70% 0.0% 5.0% 3%
New Mexico NM 5 8.56% 7.32% 0.1% 0.8% 15%
Iowa IA 7 6.02% 10.34% 0.3% 0.7% 9%
New Hampshire NH 4 1.22% 9.95% 1.3% 1.4% 9%
Colorado CO 9 4.26% 1.37% 8.4% 4.7% 9%
Missouri MO 11 10.15% 6.30% 3.3% 7.2% 0%
Tennessee * TN 11 4.65% 2.41% 3.9% 14.3% 15%
West Virginia WV 5 13.02% 14.75% 6.3% 12.9% 13%
Arizona AZ 10 6.77% 2.23% 6.3% 10.5% 9%
Montana MT 3 2.51% 2.88% 25.1% 20.5% 3%
Wisconsin WI 10 4.35% 10.33% 0.2% 0.4% 14%
Pennsylvania PA 21 9.02% 9.20% 4.2% 2.5% 11%
Oregon OR 7 9.95% 8.09% 0.4% 4.2% 16%
Minnesota MN 10 11.63% 16.14% 2.4% 3.5% 10%
Pennsylvania PA 21 9.02% 9.20% 4.2% 2.5% 11%
Michigan MI 17 7.39% 13.21% 5.1% 3.4% 16%
Washington WA 11 11.44% 12.54% 5.6% 7.2% 16%
New Jersey NJ 15 2.37% 17.86% 15.8% 6.7% 15%
Virginia VA 13 4.38% 1.95% 8.0% 8.2% 7%
North Carolina NC 15 0.79% 4.69% 12.8% 12.4% 0%
Indiana IN 11 6.12% 5.58% 15.6% 20.7% 1%
North Dakota ND 3 12.04% 6.81% 27.6% 27.4% 8%
Native son advantage (candidate's home state)
Arkansas * AR 6 17.73% 16.94% 5.4% 9.8% 20%
ECV - Elctoral College votes
* Arkansas and Tennessee had the advantage of the native son effect with Clinton and Gore in '92 and '96.

Forecasting References:
Source: "Time For A Change? Forecasting The 2008 Election", Helmut Norpoth Dept. of Political Science, Stony Brook University

Adams, William C. 1987. ÒAs New Hampshire Goes . . .Ó In Media and Momentum, eds. Gary Orren and Nelson Polsby. Chatham: Chatham House.

Buell, Emmett H. 2000. ÒThe Changing Face of the New Hampshire Primary.Ó In In Pursuit of the White House 2000, ed. William Mayer. New York: Chatham House.

Campbell, James E., and James C. Garand. 2000. Before the Vote. Thousands Oaks: Sage Publications.

Gaines, Brian J. 2001. ÒPopular Myths about Popular Vote-Electoral College Splits.Ó PS: Political Science & Politics 34: 72-75.

Jones, Randall. 2002. Who Will Be in the White House? Predicting Presidential Elections. New York: Longman.

Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Tom W. Rice 1992. Forecasting Elections. Washington, D.C.: CQ Press.

Midlarsky, Manus I. 1984. "Political Stability of Two-Party and Multiparty Systems: Probabilistic Bases for the Comparison of Party Systems." American Political Science Review 78: 929-951.

Norpoth, Helmut. 1995. "Is Clinton Doomed? An Early Forecast for 1996." PS: Political Science & Politics 28: 201-07.

Norpoth, Helmut. 2001. ÒPrimary Colors: A Mixed Blessing for Al Gore.Ó PS: Political Science & Politics 34: 45-48.

Norpoth, Helmut. 2004. ÒFrom Primary to General Election: A Forecast of the Presidential Vote.Ó PS: Political Science & Politics 37: 737-740.

Norpoth, Helmut. 2002. ÒOn a Short Leash: Term Limits and Economic Voting.Ó In The Context of Economic Voting,eds. Han Dorussen, and Michaell Taylor. London: Routledge, 121-136.

Norpoth, Helmut, and Jerrold Rusk. 2007. ÒElectoral Myth and Reality: Realignments in American Politics.Ó Electoral Studies 2007, forthcoming. Pomper, Gerald M. et al. 2001. The Election of 2000. New York: Chatham House.

Weisberg, Herbert F., and Timothy G. Hill. 2004. ÒThe Succession Presidential Election of 2000: The Battle of Legacies.Ó In Models of Voting in Presidential Elections: The 2000 U.S. Election, eds. Herbert F. Weisberg and Clyde Wilcox. Stanford: Stanford University Press, 27-48.

Yule, G.U. 1971. On a method of investigating periodicities in disturbed series with special reference to WolferÕs sunspot numbers. In A. Stuart and M. Kendall (Ed.), Statistical papers of George Udny Yule (pp. 389-420). New York: Hafner Press. (originally published 1927)

Links:
U.S. Balance of power President - Congress
www.PresidentElectionPolls.com/
Presidential Elections at Infoplease
US Presidential Election Maps: 1860-1996 at U. Virginia
County Voting Patterns in US Presidential Elections, 1976-2000
Maps at Washington Post
Presidential Elections 1789-2000 Results by county 2000 & 2004 at USA TODAY
Red States feed, Blue states Supply at TaxProf Blog

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last updated 8 Nov 2008